So, this is a tricky one to analyse. Generally a performance can be categorised as either “good” or “bad”, however black or white that might appear to be. Today’s match wasn’t great for a set and a bit and was a blip on what can be considered a pretty consistent couple of weeks for Andy. Yet I was actually very impressed and see it as part of the same development and improvement. So either I’m a) delusional, b) a tennis analytical genius or c) really that determined to prove I’m right. Let’s see how this pans out, shall we?
Where slow starts had been a real problem for Murray earlier this season, of late he has generally started at his strongest, made his mark. Today was a bit of a hybrid – I don’t think Andy was sluggish or even playing particularly badly, but he didn’t seem to have a plan. The fact that he went a break up immediately proves the first and the fact he was immediately broken back shows the second. Anderson can be a tricky player; at Wimbledon this year, Andy crushed him, but he’s a man with a big serve and more to his game than a lot of other big servers.
That was obvious from early on when he was getting into long rallies with Murray and frequently coming out on top. With a lot of the power boys, if their serve doesn’t get it for them then they’re out of it, especially against a defensive powerhouse like Murray. But Anderson, when on form, can back up that big serve with big match play. For most of the first set, I would say that Anderson was actually the better player. Andy was not on a complete lull, though, he was just unable to find a plan and so defaulted to a pretty defensive strategy that relied too much on errors that were not coming from Anderson’s racquet. He hung in there, he played some good shots, he even upped his game on a number of occasions when he needed to. But he didn’t have the upper hand.
He did do enough to stay level, though, but the smaller margins of a tie break did not flatter the tennis that Andy was playing and it was 7-3 for the first loss of a set this week. I’m not sure what I was feeling at this point. I thought there were more twists and turns and that this was probably going to three. I wasn’t convinced that Murray would find a way to turn it round but I suppose that I was rather encouraged by the difference between this set and other recent examples where Andy hadn’t come out fully focussed, say the first set against Janowicz in Beijing. In that match, Andy was flat out poor, was broken three times and only then kicked into gear. This time, Andy was clearly not feeling it out there but he managed to keep it tight, even if he didn’t manage to win out in the end, even without playing his best tennis. He could have won the set, playing worse than his opponent and playing worse than he knew he could. Although ultimately he didn’t I think that says quite a bit about Andy being more in control of his emotions now than he was.
The margins on court were incredibly close, though, and it would have been nice for a change in the dynamic to be felt earlier in the second set, for my sanity if nothing else. For most of the set, Andy was continuing to keep a pretty impressive Anderson at bay rather than playing his game. A break either way mid-set underlined that- yes, Anderson had a blip and Andy took advantage but Anderson was able to pull the shots out of the bag for an immediate break-back. And when you’re a set down and your opponent served first, you don’t really want to be getting towards the latter stages of the set and not have made your move yet, lest you run out of time. Murray kept us waiting until the ninth game, when he won the first point when Anderson put a forehand long. And the reaction from Andy was telling – an audible “yes!”, fist pump, the works. For a point that only took him 0-15 up and that was through an unforced error from his opponent. Why do I make such a point of this? Because that was, to my mind, the moment when Andy decided he was going to break Anderson and take the set. And so it proved to be. Of course it’s not always a case of mind over matter, you need the talent and ability and how your opponent responds is unpredictable, but Murray decided to take control and he did. That’s what was missing for much of this season (understandably) and what the recent weeks have brought back. 6-4 in the second.
Into the third. That momentum shift that has sometimes been lacking when Murray has taken a set was present this time and it was an immediate break. Anderson remained solid and certainly didn’t see himself as down and out, in fact the quality of the match as a whole was on the up. But Murray did not let go. He was playing far better than he had done all match, he had rythmn and he had control. He was going for winners and making the most of his movement and passing ability to neutralise Andersons previous success at the net.
Once he’d found his mojo, he didn’t look back. And that’s the second thing that makes me think this match was another step forward. Yesterday I said that the one thing that I would have liked to see was an acceration to the finish line, and today we saw that. We saw Andy dig his heels in even when he wasn’t playing his best and not allow his opponent to gain too much confidence. We saw him push when he needed to in order to sort the second set in his favour. And we saw him gallop to the win once he had found his feet.
Quick Race Report there is certainly some news. Firstly, both Raonic and Dimitrov lost, which means that Andy gains on both of them, regardless of what happens next. Ferrer won, so that means that Andy meets the Spaniard again in what has become a weekly institution, so that remains the important match that I thought it was.
Potentially the most significant news, however, came just this evening when Rafa’s apppendix finally won out and he declared that his season was over. That means that Andy probably only needs to be in 9th spot, in which case a loss tomorrow might not be terminal, especially since Raonic and Dimitrov lost today. There is a fly in the ointment in the form of Cilic, however; there is a rule that means that a grand slam champion finishing outside the top 8 will still qualify. Cilic announced he is out of Paris, today, with a minor injury (ostensibly in order to protect him from any chance of pulling out of London, so that’s unlikely) and it is mathematically possible that he would drop out of the top 8 since he won’t gain any points at Bercy. If that happened, Andy would need to be top 8 rather than top 9. So does that nega5e Rafa and put a loss tomorrow back to being pivotal? I actually don’t think it does since, logically, if Cilic dropss out of the top 8 then the top 8 move up one and Andy will likely gain a spot by overtaking Cilic. I think the only time it might make a difference is if Andy has an apalling Paris Masters and so is overtaken by Dimitrov and Raonic. So let’s just hope that just happens.
See you all tomorrow for this week’s instalment of Murray v Ferrer.
Murraython 2014 