Milos Raonic, World Tour Finals RR 2

So Sunday was not the celebration of all things Murray that we would have liked. But we move on, today is another day and another match. So let’s get cracking.

The history between these two is a strange one. Taking a couple of walkovers out of the equation, they have played 4 times and Milos leads 3-1. Being such a great returner and Raonic being so dependent on his serve, that’s an odd stat, really, since Andy generally does well against the big servers. One of those Raonic wins came earlier this year, of course, in Indian Wells, when Andy was still early on his road to recovery. Another was on clay. So perhaps there is some explanation, but still, bit weird.

Regardless of their history, today is must-win for Murray. I think there is a way in which he could lose to Fed and still go through (if Raonic beats Nishikori in straights and Andy loses but takes a set off Roger) but this one has to be Andy’s. So there’s your motivation Andy, let’s see the performance.

The start was not flawless but was certainly brighter than Sunday. More of a feel into his game, rather than his game being tied up and bound and hidden in a cupboard somewhere where Andy couldn’t find it. That was all I needed to see to feel that, whilst a win was not guaranteed based on a few initial games, I was expecting some half decent tennis, of the kind somewhat absent at the weekend.

And I was right (I like being right). From a solid if not spectacular start, Andy gradually found his groove and became more pushy and aggressive. Considering how poor Andy’s return was against a player not known for a power serve, it was working for him much better tonight against a man who will regularly hit 140 mph plus bullets at his opponent (I think he topped out at 146 against Fed the other day). As the set wore on, Andy got better. And then he got good enough to break Raonic in the 6th game and, wonder of wonders, hold for the rest of the set. Well that was remarkably unstressful, wasn’t it?

It was no surprise that Raonic, having lost to Fed and looking to be in trouble against Muzz, started to buck up. His first serve percentage went from 38% in the first set to 63% in the second, making him much more dangerous. Still, Murray was keeping his nose ahead and he was the first to break and go 2-1 ahead on his serve. And that break came from 40-0 down, solid effort, Andy.

Unfortunately, the hold wasn’t there and it was back on serve before we knew it. This is where the change of the last couple of months or so came in; that was demoralising and gave Milos some belief that he could get back in this. But although Andy didn’t break Milos again immediately, and there was certainly a lot of shouting and self-berating, he remained focused and didn’t get knocked off course. He still believed that he was going to win the match and that he was going to win it in straights. He just needed to make that clear to Milos.

The Canadian fought as the set went on but he was being forced by Andy to take risks and play the tougher shots, and he simply wasn’t making them. Conversely, Andy was determined and although Raonic was managing to get some traction on his serve, going 0-30 up on a couple of occasions, our boy was playing the big points when he needed to. And in the 11th game the break was his. Milos threw everything at the last game, when Muzza was serving for the match, but it was not to be and Andy prevailed, saving break points to get match points. A straight sets victory was his.

Andy takes on Federer on Thursday evening. It should be interesting. The Swiss has been playing incredibly well and it will be tricky, but if Andy can turn up, really turn up, he’ll give him a match. Fingers crossed that Raonic tries to go out with a bang and takes down Nishikori to keep the group honest to the end. I understand that there are potentially issues with Kei’s wrist, so although Milos has not had a great tournament so far, that may be enough.

This just got interesting, didn’t it?

Kei Nishikori, World Tour Finals RR 1

We were hoping for somewhat of a more triumphant homecoming, really. It wasn’t quite what I was hoping for, and I suspect it wasn’t what the hero of our tale was hoping for, either.

Before the match review, I thought I’d give a quick summary of my day. For those of you who don’t follow me on twitter (and why not? @Murraython for those who want my pearls of wisdom more frequently and in bite sized chunks of 140 characters or les), I took a punt when the tickets came out in April that a) Murray would qualify and b) he would be scheduled for the first day if he did. I was right on both counts and my all day tickets were my passport to my first competitive live Murray-match. Huzzah.

My friend and I turned up with a little time to spare before the doubles was going to kick off proceedings, so we headed to the practice courts. Nishikori was hitting on practice court 1, with Michael Chang by his side. Rolling over to practice court 2 and there was Stan Wawrinka, hitting up with the second alternate, Feliciano Lopez. Excellent. 3 out of the 10 players in London (if you count the two alternates) crossed off the list. Following a little bit of photo-taking, we went to take our seats for the first session. Of course, that allowed us to cross Andy off the list (more of which below, of course). Following a classy dinner a la Nandos, we headed back to the practice courts before the second session. This time we saw Cilic hitting with Goran (who I love, FYI) and then managed to catch a final glimpse of Berdych and alternate number one, David Ferrer. So now we were up to 7 of the 10. Of course, Federer and Milos were the next to be ticked from the list, taking me to 9. And lo, who was sitting in the audience for the evening session of the doubles but Djokovic, walking within 6 feet of us when he left the court? Ding ding ding, a full house. A good day at the stalking office.

Now, the content of the tennis.

Well, I won’t blow by blow. But ultimately the match was a bit of a mess. Neither player started off strong, but if anyone was a bit stronger it was probably Andy. He served well enough but he didn’t look comfortable. Luckily for him, neither did Kei, who had a 25% first serve percentage after 2 games each and was not hitting strong. It was generally a poor level match, to be honest. The odd good point, maybe, but few and far between. This is all a new experience for Kei and he lacked the home crowd advantage Andy had (although with the quality of the tennis so low, the crowd didn’t fully get going) so I for one thought Andy would find his feet and start to find a rhythm.

That’s not how it panned out, unfortunately. Andy was serving at an acceptable level, not his worst serving performance although there have been some shockers in recent memory. But the biggest problem was actually his return. He tried to be aggressive on occasion but when he did he struggled, I honestly can’t remember a point he won when he stepped in on Nishikori’s serve. So he opted to stand miles behind the baseline, just trying to get his return shots back in. Andy did break first, although more due to errors from Kei, rather than a period of pressure from Murray. That break went by the wayside immediately and once Kei had found his voice, which he then did, his confidence appeared hard to rock. He wasn’t quite able to break at will but he did break when needed to take the first 6-4.

We’ve all watched enough Murray matches to know that things can change. It’s been a feature of his career that he has battled back, never mind the last few weeks. So I was not resigned to a loss yet. But the change was going to need to come and come quick. Kei was on a roll of sorts, if not running away with it he was confident and hitting plenty of clean winners and that was reflected in going 3-0 up without much ado. Andy was improving but slowly and that improvement seemed to come from Murray forcing himself to play better rather than managing to loosen up and pray his free, natural game. So the improvement had its limits. He forced it back onto serve but, as with the first set, Nishikori forced the break when it was most needed to take the second set and the match.

The result is not a death knell but it makes it very hard – Andy has to win both his remaining matches, in essence, to have a chance, and even that might conceivably not be enough. He also probably needs Raonic to bear Nishikori and I am not convinced that will happen, although there is always the chance that Kei’s inexperience will win out or Raonic will find some form to try and end the tournament with a win, if he loses to Murray tomorrow. I do remain confident that Andy will play much better against Milos, though, I really do. I think he was a bit tired, perhaps, but the main thing appears to have been that he was struggling to get the feel of the court and the ball with the full arena, and Andy is good at learning from past experiences and improving. And if he finds his feet then I would bet on his getting Raonic’s number.

Fingers crossed and bring it on.

Novak Djokovic, Paris Masters Quarter Final

Ah, Novak. Now we’ve done away with Dimitrov, you take front row as Andy’s Grand Nemesis of 2014. This was the fourth meeting this year, with no victories to date, and represented probably the best opportunity that Andy has had to get a win. Fresh back on tour following the birth of his first son, Stefan, Novak has shown he is sometimes vulnerable when distracted by external forces (such as the post-marriage slump in Toronto and Cincinnati). Combine that with the form that Andy has shown in the last few weeks and I hoped that we had a match.

The Race was no longer on the line, but a chance to make further moves up the rankings was still in the mix. Plus the chance to really prove to the tennis world and, more importantly, to himself that he was back is no small amount of motivation. I certainly believed that he could do it, but the question was whether or not he would. And that, to me, was down to whether or not Andy could find his best tennis because you can’t beat Novak without it. In fact few can even when they do.

I think Andy started off well enough, if not with huge amounts of pizzazz. To be fair, the same could arguably be said of Novak, it was a little bit cagey. Andy had a battle on his first service game but came through it – he played better at the end of that game than at the start and seemed to warm up a little quite quickly, hitting an ace and following it up with another two strong first serve points to hold. All pretty encouraging.

I would say that Novak was edging Andy most of the first set, but there wasn’t much in it, and the fact that Andy was keeping his cool and holding his serve despite that was a good sign. But that edge in play wasn’t down to better tactics or cleaner shots from the Serb but mainly from his first serve percentage. Andy won 85% of his first serve points in the first set, an excellent number and better than Djokovic’s. Novak simply wasn’t able to get in on the return. But his percentage of first serves in was a woeful 49%. Therein lied the problem because Novak was punishing him on the second serve, Murray wasn’t even winning half. So credit to Andy for staying with Novak the majority of the first set considering but, considering how brilliantly he served only 24 hours earlier against Dimitrov, it was a shame. Fair play that against a returner like Novak, you need to take chances and serve aggressively, but to win you need to both serve aggressively and make those shots; one won’t do.

It looked like it was going to a tiebreak, but a poor service game at 6-5 handed Novak the set at the last opportunity, and the ability to serve first in the second set. Despite the stats, the score had bee close, and Andy has pulled himself out of scrapes in the last few weeks through sheer determination, so it didn’t feel over, by any means. Djokovic held easily and then seriously challenged Andy on the next service game and it looked like Djokovic might have got this one by the scruff of the neck. But Andy found some first serves (hurrah!) and held. And then Novak blinked, allowing Andy into his serve, and within a game there was a shift. And Murray was ahead for the first time in the match.

No player is perfect and even Novak will lose concentration during a match. But it will often be short and it needs to be pounced on when it happens. Andy did that, he took his opportunity when it presented itself. Unfortunately, you can’t show weakness yourself at the same time, and Andy did, playing a poor service game himself and failing to back up the break. It wasn’t the end of things at that point, it was only 2-2, but you don’t get much from Novak and it did feel rather like that was Murray’s opportunity and he was unlikely to have another. And perhaps that’s how it felt to Andy as, from just keeping up with Djokovic for most of the match, Andy then failed to win another service game. 6-2 and three breaks of his serve in the set was not really how any of us wanted it to go.

It’s a little disheartening, for sure. Novak was solid but not stellar and Andy got a look in on his serve enough times to think that if he had played at his best and, most importantly, served at his best, he really could have had this one. But, even if disappointing, it shouldn’t take away from the achievements of the last few weeks and what it has meant. And the fact we’ve seen him show, consistently for the first time this year, what has made him a champion and what will continue to make him a champion in future.

I cannot overemphasise how much I think Andy has benefitted from having a real, concrete focus over the Asian/European swing. He wanted London, he knew what he had to do to do it, he made it happen. There was a goal. I don’t know what his goal will be when we come back in January, after the O2 and this season are done, but he needs to know what he’s working towards, because that is clearly what he needs for motivation.

Grigor Dimitrov, Paris Masters Round 3

I think players can have bogeymen; opponents who, despite ostensibly being the weaker player, they seem to struggle against. Sometimes it’s real, the match up just doesn’t seem to suit the higher ranked player, and sometimes it’s psychological. I’m sure sometimes it’s a mixture of both. For Murray, there was a chance that Dimitrov could become such a bogeyman.

They have played five times; the first three, Murray didn’t drop a set. It was all quite straight forward. This year, however, they have played twice, in Acapulco and Wimbledon, and the Bulgarian has triumphed both times. Obviously neither of those performances were Andy at full pelt but they were matches that Andy would have gone into believing he could win and it didn’t quite pan out that way. Wimbledon in particular, of course, was a public and painful loss. I think that the way Andy is playing now is not the way he was playing then but if he had lost to Dimitrov again, on his current run of form, I think that the match up would have become a difficult one.

And besides, a win today meant guaranteed qualification for London.

Dimitrov is certainly a little more vulnerable now than he perhaps was earlier in the season – a few more early losses, the chance of making the O2 for the first time slipping away. But he made the Stockholm final a few weeks back and this is a man who has made semis of slams and masters this year, reaching a career high of 8.

I’m not going to blow by blow this one at all. But Murray came out focused and was proactive from the start, if not necessarily overly aggressive. He didn’t appear nervous or ruffled but in control of himself. Dimitrov wasn’t playing badly but didn’t come out as clean and precise as he can be when he’s at his best. Andy’s tactics appeared to be consistency, no need to be flashy, but make sure he didn’t let Dimitrov in.

So how do you do that, then? Well, you serve well. Andy was hitting the first serves much more than he has lately, 70% in the first set and 66% overall. More importantly, he was winning a whopping 93% of those first serve points. By contrast, Dimitrov, who was pretty close with a 62% first serve percentage for the match, was only winning 64% of his first serves. So Andy was serving well and returning aggressively; Grigor only managed 7% first serve returns to Andy’s 36%. Andy was going for winners but was patient in waiting for the opportunity to hit them, barely hitting any errors in the process.

Murray was a bit of a brick wall but was also creating and taking his chances – he broke early in the first, breaking again to take the set and start the second on serve. Another early break was enough to seal it. Andy won 3 of the 4 break points that presented themselves to him and didn’t allow Grigor a chance of a break at any point during the match. Dimitrov had no answers and by the end was flat and frustrated (just how we like Andy’s opponents).

I think Andy’s play today was perfect for the situation. It allowed Grigor no rhythm and no cheap points. It kept him in control of the match and he seemed remarkably calm throughout. He did the one thing he has probably lacked through his recent epic run, served well and served consistently. I think if he faces Novak tomorrow (and right now it seems likely, since he is a set up against Monfils as I write) that’s an excellent start.

So Andy has made it to London. It has looked touch and go at points but he is currently in 5th position, not just qualified but sitting pretty. That’s an impressive feat and down to his incredible resolve in the last few weeks. He’s climbed the rankings, too, currently at 8th, and if he can squeeze a bit further this week then he could start getting back to where he belongs (whilst obviously not to be banked on, a win here would take him back to the top 4). He’ll have free points in London, as well, and the way he is playing he has a strong chance of at least a semi final appearance.

So the Race is won, but it is not just pride but ranking points still to play for. And based on the muted reaction to winning today, I don’t think Andy sees his work in Paris as done. Not by half.

Julien Benneteau, Paris Masters Round 2

Bonjour Paris, Je t’aime! Last year I actually went to the semi finals, my first time at the tournament. I was hoping to go to the quarters this year but unfortunately slacked off on getting tickets the morning they were released and, by that evening, the decent tickets were gone. And if you’re going to travel to Paris for the tennis it really is better not to be sitting where it looks like the players are magical tennis-playing fleas. Next year I’ll get off my backside quicker and do it properly again.

As for this year’s competition, Andy has had the grand total of only two clear days to recover from Sunday’s epic in Valencia. It was clearly a gargantuan effort to win that title and one that essentially guaranteed his place in London (bloody good job too as I was quicker off the mark on tickets for the O2 so please put Andy on court the first Sunday, I don’t want a full season without seeing him play a competitive match live!). So, if the exhaustion of the jam-packed, globe-trotting last few weeks affect Andy’s chances of going deep in Paris, it isn’t the end of the world. And it would give him more rest before the O2.

Having said that, there are some serious benefits to a good run here. Andy’s draw is tough, but he will most likely meet Dimitrov next, followed by Djokovic. He’d then meet his weekly hitting partner, Ferrer, and face off in a final against Federer, again presuming things go to seedings. I think being able to exact revenge against Dimitrov, other than being satisfying, would be cast iron evidence of Andy’s progress, to him as well as to the rest of us, having lost to the young pretender twice this season with no reply. I also think that managing to beat Djokovic at least once this season would be really significant, because that’s the level Andy wants to be playing at, the level he was playing at before. So whilst I won’t be disappointed if Andy doesn’t achieve those things, I am hoping he can make an impact at Bercy nevertheless.

Benneteau is not a man to be taken lightly, however he is arguably best known for being the only man in the open era to have ever lost 10 ATP finals with no wins to his name. Poor man, and I do hope he does win one in his career. He’s a stalwart of the top 30 or so and, although he’s not known for giant killing, has beaten plenty of top ten players in his time, including Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. But not Murray. Home crowd advantage, of course, being French, but only really a threat if Murray wasn’t feeling on his game today.

Based on his recent exertions, the last thing Andy would want is a long, gruelling encounter. We want quick rallies, getting ahead early in the sets, over before it’s begun type stuff. And that’s exactly what Andy did. Immediate break, imposing himself on Benneteau from the start, ending points quickly and avoiding long groundstroke rallies. Benneteau is not one to prefer slugging it out from the baseline, anyway, so that played to Andy’s apparent game plan. He served well in the first set, never let the Frenchman get more of a sniff on his service games than 30-30, and only 3 unforced errors all set. Benneteau, however, was far less secure on the ball and his error-strewn game was symptomatic of the way Murray was dictating play.

The second set felt similarly secure at the start. Andy went a break up quickly, continuing to move Benneteau around and giving him very little to work with. Then a double break it was, 4-1. Happy days. At this point I thought he was home and dry pretty easily, but it was the serve that started to fray around the edges and Benneteau was going for broke (since what else do you do when you’re a set and a double break down?). One break fell by the wayside that way – Andy managed to remain in control, getting it back to deuce from 0-40 down, but then let it slide with further dodgy serving and one break back was Benneteau’s. That continued in the next game, when Murray was in serious danger of losing his second break, but he managed to check himself, actually make a first serve, and stay in control of the scoreboard.

It would have been nice if Andy had bucked up and recovered that second break to take the match, or if he had simply maintained the play of the first set throughout. He didn’t seem to quite have the intensity to force that and ultimately seemed content to wait to serve it out. Obviously that’s not the ideal tactic when considered in a vacuum, but in the context of a match Andy was still essentially in control of, and when avoiding expending energy was important, it makes some sense. And there was no need to doubt him when he served the match out to love.

In terms of the Race, Andy has in essence qualified, but it hasn’t yet become a mathematical certainty. If any of Raonic, Ferrer or Dimitrov had lost today, it would have – that didn’t happen so we are still waiting for the official confirmation he has qualified. It would take some pressure off, I guess, but it does allow Andy to keep it on his racquet, and that’s quite nice in some ways. And if he beats Dimitrov tomorrow, he will have guaranteed his spot.

So stay tuned, folks. For Grigor, tomorrow means keeping his slim hopes of making it to London alive. For Andy it means guaranteeing his spot and paying the Bulgarian back for a couple of painful losses this year. I reckon this one will be worth watching.

Tommy Robredo, Valencia Final

It’s another week, another final, another Spaniard standing in Murray’s way. This is all becoming a little predictable, isn’t it?

This week has been another good week for Andy and I’ve taken a lot of positives from it, for sure. The biggest positive is the bump it gives Andy in the Race but the longer-term benefit to confidence of this week, on top of the last few, can’t be discounted. Winning today would add to that, in terms of points but also and importantly by ensuring that Andy is consistently beating those who he should beat. Tommy Robredo is a talent and I’m not doing him a disservice or suggesting he can’t beat Andy but, on form, the Spaniard will come out second best.

I have to admit that I went into this match confident that Andy was in the right form and the right headspace to take this one. We know from the match in Shenzhen a few weeks back that Tommy can cause Andy trouble, sure, but Andy wasn’t playing nearly as well that week as he has been here, the conditions in China were tough and, ultimately, Andy still won out in that match.

Murray came out slow, more as he did against Anderson than against Ferrer, shall we say. Robredo was probably the more comfortable player from the off but Andy was playing well enough that he wasn’t able to take control. Ok, we can all handle that and as long as Andy warms up quickly enough not to fall behind. It didn’t really happen; the games were all full of long, gruelling groundstroke rallies without much variation. The long points were clearly exhausting, both players running from side to side, point after point. And looking like it too. Only a handful of games in and the two of them looked like they had run a marathon already. Bit weird, in many ways, as although it was clearly a physical match, it was such early days.

There were a few epically long games, back and forth to deuce, fighting from the baseline between the two. Unfortunately, the two games like that on Robredo’s serve did not produce a break for Murray and the game like that on Murray’s…did. Andy was trying to get back into it but he simply wasn’t managing to find his shots and could only wait for errors from Robredo’s racquet that did not come, when those from his own did. Again, it wasn’t terrible but it was far from his best play and Tommy was feeling and looking much better than him. And that difference granted Robredo another break to take the set, 6-3.

There have been some close sets this week. Against Anderson, Murray lost the first butt he had stayed with the South African and didn’t look particularly put off by having lost the first set. Here, Murray’s body language was not encouraging, he looked frustrated and exhausted and yet unable to shorten the points and take control. That didn’t bode well for the start of set 2.

I don’t really think that Andy can really take too much credit for what did actually happen at the start of he second – he did look like he was still fighting, but his play was not improved significantly enough to impose himself. Robredo, however, did slip a little for only a short while and somehow Andy had a break. He managed to protect it and stay ahead for a while, playingg better but still not his best. He even managed to go 0-40 up on a subsequent Robredo service game but 5 points in a row for the Spaniard neutralised that one. The apparent frustration of that may have been the catalyst for Murray going from the edge of a double break to being back on serve in one fell swoop. Bugger.

Luckily, there were no more breaks for Robredo but that did mean we were in a tie break situation. And we know how much fun the last one these two played was (yes, five match points he had to save. FIVE.) It took until the 5th point of the breaker for either player to hold serve, but unfortunately that was Robredo (just) and Andy was a full break behind at the change of ends. Luckily he pulled it back and was actually in a position to go 5-4 ahead, with a chance to serve it out, until Robredo hit what was probably the best shot of the match (a rather Murray-esque running passing shot down the line). And a sense of deja vu descended upon us all when, a moment later, Robredo found himself one of those pesky match points he seems so fond of. Murray saved it (more deja vu) but send a forehand long on the next point to give him another, albeit on Murray’s serve this time. Ace (phew). By this point, I can’t believe that Shenzhen was not playing on both players’ minds, and that could only work for Andy. Muzzza held, granting him his first set points and BOOM, that was it. Andy took the second and we were into a third, praying that it went the same way as Shenzhen, too.

If you ever needed proof that Andy Murray is a fighter, that tie break was it (although for the record, Andy, we knew that after Shenzhen, no need to labour a point). Andy looked spent, looked like he would ideally rather like to just go home to bed, but he was forcing himself to play as well as he was able to play. Giving up is not in his vocabulary. And in the third, clearly buoyed by the tie break, he was clearly in dominant mood. Unlike Shenzhen, when Andy went running off into the sunset the second the third set began, this time it felt a little more precarious – Murray was playing far better, Robredo looking tired and frustrated, but I felt like the momentum could still conceivably shift and a break was needed to cement the outcome of the match in the Scot’s favour. That almost came immediately, with break points not quite coming Andy’s way with a couple of balls going millimetres wide. Andy held comfortably the held comfortably again. Although he wasn’t quite motoring home, his demeanour had completely changed, he wasn’t getting agitated and he looked like he believed, in marked difference to sets 1 and 2.

There was an issue with cramp and I’m not sure why – a couple of reactions on court and then Andy didn’t sit at the changeover, which I understand might assist in stopping cramp taking hold. Having started the set brightly, the concern around the cramp understandably affected his game. A terrible service game, where Andy just looked physically unable to toss the ball properly and somehow, from a set that started so promisingly, Andy was a break down. I think the fact that a changeover followed and allowed a regroup (and, this time, a sit down) meant Andy attacked on the next service game and the level of tennis went up. Break back, 4-4.

At this point it still could have gone either way, but the manner in which Andy was battling made me think that he was simply not prepared to let this one go; be it cramp, match points against him, break down in the third, whatever. When he was 6-5 ahead, on serve, it was the perfect time to break (particularly since the last thing any of us wanted to happen was another tie break) and he was close to doing so, but it was not to be. So that tie break that was the last thing we wanted to happen…happened.

And the tiebreak did not “disappoint”. There were mini breaks a plenty, there were some epic gets from both players, there was drama. There were more match points for Robredo, four to be exact, totalling five for the match (ring a bell? five, AGAIN, Andy???). But, ultimately, our man prevailed. And then fell on the floor, which is fair enough.

So, what have we learnt, then?

1) Andy can and will beat Robredo. But he needs to face exactly five match points first.
2) Flicking your opponent the finger after a loss can be done in an amusing and tasteful manner (special note there for Fabio Fognini, who struggles on this count).
3) Andy is a a RIDICULOUS fighter. I mean we knew that but today was RIDICULOUS.
4) The full schedule looks to have done it’s job in terms of match practice, winning experience and points to London. Although it might take it’s toll physically in Paris, that might not turn out to be too much of a problem.
5) Despite essentially being tee total, Andy can in fact be driven to drink by playing the longest three setter of the year, facing five match points and managing to win the thing.

Well done, champion. See you in Bercy and, I very much expect, see you in London!

David Ferrer, Valencia Semi Final

Welcome to your weekly instalment of Murray v Ferrer. Nice to have you back.

There is probably little I can tell you about David or their head to head that a) I haven’t already mentioned in the last couple of weeks and b) is worth doing so, so the tennis can be the focus. And this match might define who makes London, so that’s probably not a bad thing.

I think predictions for this match could honestly go either way, with genuine reasons to think either player would win out. Andy won their last meeting and leads their head to head on hard courts by a margin. But David beat Andy on a hard court only two weeks ago and didn’t have nearly as tough a match yesterday. I’d probably have gone for Andy but ultimately it was hard to really know which way the match would go until the players stepped out on court.

Lucky for us, Andy had his game face on when he stepped out onto Agora. From the off, Andy was hitting clean, being aggressive, telling Ferrer how it was going to be. And how it was going to be was an immediate break for Murray. Jubilation. Andy was aided by a couple of double faults from Ferrer but he did his bit and it doesn’t matter – if you see weakness in your opponent then use that to bolster your confidence. And he did.

From that early tone-setter, Andy hardly set a foot wrong. He served well, he was incredibly aggressive on the return. Ferrer was not playing his best but he was on better form than the first set in Shanghai where Andy demolished him. It was Andy’s game that was frustrating him, in the main. Hardly an unforced error in sight. Ferrer hardly got a sniff on Andy’s serve and Andy was getting at least a couple of stonking points on each Ferrer service game to keep the Spaniard in his place. It was lovely to watch. Although Andy didn’t double up his break he was completely dominant. 6-4.

Andy avoided the pitfall of falling off a little going into a second set. In fact quite the opposite – he maintained the pressure and went an immediate break up. And then another, 3-0 without too much ado. It was all looking perfect, over before it had begun for Ferrer. I wonder if that passed through Andy’s mind, but whatever happened it answered Ferrer’s prayers as he got a little traction on Andy’s serve, built on it, and one of those breaks was lost. No matter, we thought, a little wobble but he has a reserve break. He actually almost got that double break back. But then, oh yes then, he lost that second break. 3 games on the bounce for Ferrer and not only was that the double break lost but the momentum as well. Ferrer was pumped up, the home crowd were getting loud for their man, and Murray just couldn’t find the form that he had found for so much of the match. He was no longer keeping Ferrer where he wanted him and the Spaniard was taking control.

It was pretty hairy at 4-3 when Ferrer had the chance for yet another break. I think if Ferrer had broken there then the set probably would have been his without much more fuss but Andy battled to stay in it. You could tell from Andy’s body language how frustrated he was, with himself and the tennis he was now playing. Now that he’s got a bit more faith in himself he doesn’t crumble in this sort of situation but he does revert to defensive play. With Ferrer playing the way he was it was only just enough to hang in there. Andy got a little bit of love on Ferrer’s next service game and was doing his best to battle, but it wasn’t to be, even if David had some assistance from the net.

Even though Andy’s level had dropped, it looked as though Ferrer felt he had to play his absolute most aggressive tennis to keep on top of Andy. Whether that was the case or not, I think that put Ferrer on the edge of over egging his pudding and sending shots long, over doing it. And in the 11th game of the set David felt a little less in control, perhaps frustrated that he was playing so well and yet it was still on serve. Andy seemed to sense that in that he himself appeared to settle a little and, although it wasn’t with ease, he broke Ferrer for the opportunity to serve out the match.

Ferrer wasn’t going to let this one go easily. Home tournament, battle for London (although, with Nadal’s withdrawal, both men might well be there). I was practically in need to breathing apparatus and it was a good job my flatmates were out as the four letter expletives being emitted from the living room were not for public consumption. But, thankfully, in the end, Andy found a way to win out. Another week, another final.

Overall analysis? Well, he fought through and the first set and a bit was phenomenal. He went off the boil and didn’t really re-find that form but he did find a way to beat David and that’s ultimately the most important thing. Tomorrow he will either face Chardy or Robredo, and Andy will expect a win for himself against either. If he does win, he will find himself 5th in the Race and almost guaranteed a spot in London (although his Paris draw is tough, a win tomorrow should mean that a quarter final is sufficient and potentially less if others in the Race slip up).

Well done, Andy, on forcing a straight sets win. Oh and remember, if both of you were to get that far, you’ll be playing David again this time next week…

Kevin Anderson, Valencia Quarter Final

So, this is a tricky one to analyse. Generally a performance can be categorised as either “good” or “bad”, however black or white that might appear to be. Today’s match wasn’t great for a set and a bit and was a blip on what can be considered a pretty consistent couple of weeks for Andy. Yet I was actually very impressed and see it as part of the same development and improvement. So either I’m a) delusional, b) a tennis analytical genius or c) really that determined to prove I’m right. Let’s see how this pans out, shall we?

Where slow starts had been a real problem for Murray earlier this season, of late he has generally started at his strongest, made his mark. Today was a bit of a hybrid – I don’t think Andy was sluggish or even playing particularly badly, but he didn’t seem to have a plan. The fact that he went a break up immediately proves the first and the fact he was immediately broken back shows the second. Anderson can be a tricky player; at Wimbledon this year, Andy crushed him, but he’s a man with a big serve and more to his game than a lot of other big servers.

That was obvious from early on when he was getting into long rallies with Murray and frequently coming out on top. With a lot of the power boys, if their serve doesn’t get it for them then they’re out of it, especially against a defensive powerhouse like Murray. But Anderson, when on form, can back up that big serve with big match play. For most of the first set, I would say that Anderson was actually the better player. Andy was not on a complete lull, though, he was just unable to find a plan and so defaulted to a pretty defensive strategy that relied too much on errors that were not coming from Anderson’s racquet. He hung in there, he played some good shots, he even upped his game on a number of occasions when he needed to. But he didn’t have the upper hand.

He did do enough to stay level, though, but the smaller margins of a tie break did not flatter the tennis that Andy was playing and it was 7-3 for the first loss of a set this week. I’m not sure what I was feeling at this point. I thought there were more twists and turns and that this was probably going to three. I wasn’t convinced that Murray would find a way to turn it round but I suppose that I was rather encouraged by the difference between this set and other recent examples where Andy hadn’t come out fully focussed, say the first set against Janowicz in Beijing. In that match, Andy was flat out poor, was broken three times and only then kicked into gear. This time, Andy was clearly not feeling it out there but he managed to keep it tight, even if he didn’t manage to win out in the end, even without playing his best tennis. He could have won the set, playing worse than his opponent and playing worse than he knew he could. Although ultimately he didn’t I think that says quite a bit about Andy being more in control of his emotions now than he was.

The margins on court were incredibly close, though, and it would have been nice for a change in the dynamic to be felt earlier in the second set, for my sanity if nothing else. For most of the set, Andy was continuing to keep a pretty impressive Anderson at bay rather than playing his game. A break either way mid-set underlined that- yes, Anderson had a blip and Andy took advantage but Anderson was able to pull the shots out of the bag for an immediate break-back. And when you’re a set down and your opponent served first, you don’t really want to be getting towards the latter stages of the set and not have made your move yet, lest you run out of time. Murray kept us waiting until the ninth game, when he won the first point when Anderson put a forehand long. And the reaction from Andy was telling – an audible “yes!”, fist pump, the works. For a point that only took him 0-15 up and that was through an unforced error from his opponent. Why do I make such a point of this? Because that was, to my mind, the moment when Andy decided he was going to break Anderson and take the set. And so it proved to be. Of course it’s not always a case of mind over matter, you need the talent and ability and how your opponent responds is unpredictable, but Murray decided to take control and he did. That’s what was missing for much of this season (understandably) and what the recent weeks have brought back. 6-4 in the second.

Into the third. That momentum shift that has sometimes been lacking when Murray has taken a set was present this time and it was an immediate break. Anderson remained solid and certainly didn’t see himself as down and out, in fact the quality of the match as a whole was on the up. But Murray did not let go. He was playing far better than he had done all match, he had rythmn and he had control. He was going for winners and making the most of his movement and passing ability to neutralise Andersons previous success at the net.

Once he’d found his mojo, he didn’t look back. And that’s the second thing that makes me think this match was another step forward. Yesterday I said that the one thing that I would have liked to see was an acceration to the finish line, and today we saw that. We saw Andy dig his heels in even when he wasn’t playing his best and not allow his opponent to gain too much confidence. We saw him push when he needed to in order to sort the second set in his favour. And we saw him gallop to the win once he had found his feet.

Quick Race Report there is certainly some news. Firstly, both Raonic and Dimitrov lost, which means that Andy gains on both of them, regardless of what happens next. Ferrer won, so that means that Andy meets the Spaniard again in what has become a weekly institution, so that remains the important match that I thought it was.

Potentially the most significant news, however, came just this evening when Rafa’s apppendix finally won out and he declared that his season was over. That means that Andy probably only needs to be in 9th spot, in which case a loss tomorrow might not be terminal, especially since Raonic and Dimitrov lost today. There is a fly in the ointment in the form of Cilic, however; there is a rule that means that a grand slam champion finishing outside the top 8 will still qualify. Cilic announced he is out of Paris, today, with a minor injury (ostensibly in order to protect him from any chance of pulling out of London, so that’s unlikely) and it is mathematically possible that he would drop out of the top 8 since he won’t gain any points at Bercy. If that happened, Andy would need to be top 8 rather than top 9. So does that nega5e Rafa and put a loss tomorrow back to being pivotal? I actually don’t think it does since, logically, if Cilic dropss out of the top 8 then the top 8 move up one and Andy will likely gain a spot by overtaking Cilic. I think the only time it might make a difference is if Andy has an apalling Paris Masters and so is overtaken by Dimitrov and Raonic. So let’s just hope that just happens.

See you all tomorrow for this week’s instalment of Murray v Ferrer.

Fabio Fognini, Valencia Round 2

Yet again, I was forced to deny myself live tennis today (and, of course, my loyal twitter followers my incisive and witty comment during the match. It must be tough). And, having looked at the schedule for tomorrow, apparently I’m doomed to keep repeating the experience. Bloody European tournaments, eh?

After yesterday’s solid start, Fabio Fognini is next up. You can look at Fabio in a number of ways – one is as a dangerous floater, capable of playing brilliant tennis and giving the best of them a hard time. That was the Fabio Fognini who turned up when Andy last played him, in the Davis Cup earlier this year. The other is as a psychologically weak player who is unable to make the best of his obvious talent and is his own worst enemy. Perhaps it’s a bit of both, but in terms of Andy’s experiences against the Italian it has arguably been more of the first; before today, they had only met three times and Fabio actually led the head to head 2-1. Bizarrely, Andy’s only win came on the clay of Monte Carlo, theoretically his opponent’s best surface.

Andy was playing well, going into this match, though, so I, for one, hoped the 19^th-ranked Italian would simply be a good run out for our man. And the first set was so straight forward as to be slightly embarrassing. Andy was playing well, could hardly hit a ball wrong. In fact he only lost two points on his serve the entire set. Yes, two points. He broke Fognini twice to go 4-0 up, lost one more point on serve the rest o the set, hit winners for fun and remained totally in control throughout. Fognini was not playing well, which is an understatement, and was pretty much a bystander to Murray’s display. Movement, shot making, it was excellent and it was entertaining. 6-2.

The second set was a similar affair on the service, perhaps slightly different below. Ultimately, Andy never faced a break point, never lost more than two points on serve (6 points lost in total) and won out 6-4. Fognini played better but continued to hit lots of unforced errors. Once the break came in game 5, he was done for. A look at the stats do show that there was a little more to the second set and perhaps a little less intensity – a first serve percentage of 78% dropped all the way down to 42%, he attacked Fognini’s second serve less, winning 50% of points down from 70% on the second ball. It was clearly enough, but I would ideally like to see Andy ramp up as a match goes on because there is always a chance that your opponent will come back. Well, if you’re opponent’s not Fognini, anyway.

But that really is splitting hairs, because it was an excellent performance and showed all the things we’ve seen returning to Andy’s game in terms of confidence. So if I was Kevin Anderson I might be losing a few hours sleep tonight and if I was Andy I’d be sleeping pretty darn well.

So, to the race. Well, nothing too much to report in terms of those who are in it alongside Murray – Raonic, Ferrer, Dimitrov all won (although it was touch and go for the Canadian). So the pressure is still there. It is worth mentioning, though, that the entire bottom half of the drawn has fallen apart, in that no seed has made it past the second round (and in fact only one, Lopez, made it past the first). Although Berdych losing is theoretically great for Andy, it makes a semi against Ferrer, if they both win tomorrow, incredibly important, because in all likelihood the winner of that match will win the tournament. Absent a significant upset, there is no one who can come through the bottom who, going to form or ranking, is likely to beat either Ferrer or Murray. In which case I’m predicting one of the two to come out of this tournament with 180 points and the other with 500. That’s significant.

In terms of the race as it stands, if Andy wins then he will find himself in fifth spot. Not yet qualified but probably as good as. If he were to lose to Ferrer and the Spaniard went on to win the tournament, Ferrer would move up to sixth and Andy would drop out of a qualifying spot, 130 or so points off Berdych in eighth.

So pay attention, because the next few days might define whether Andy is at the O2 or not.

Jurgen Melzer, Valencia Round 1

We’re into week five of a six-week Murray marathon (or “Murraython”, if you will…) and it’s Valencia where we’ve ended up. Good call, it sounds like a much more chilled place than option two, Basel (if for no other reason than the fact that it doesn’t currently house Nadal and Federer, although it does appear to also be sunny). I also rather like the fact the tournament appears to take place in some form of modern Cathedral design, which I find charming.

European tournaments pose their own problems when it comes to match times, and today’s lunchtime start was one I couldn’t make. Personally, I think it’s pretty rude to expect anyone to work whilst there is tennis on, let alone a Murray match, but I’ve come to understand I’m in the minority on that one. So, no twitter, facebook, BBC News, googling of any other tennis players to try and find their results in case information re Murray might happen to be included…I know the drill by now. Roughly 5.30pm and I’m finally watching Andy and Jurgen Melzer warming up.

This week and next are pretty important for two reasons. First, in relation to the race to London, as they are worth 1500 points total. Winning in Vienna was great but the points on offer here and in Paris mean that Murray’s current position in a qualification spot is a way off being safe. He needs to do as well or better than those still in the running, even a round different could make the difference. Secondly, even if Andy doesn’t qualify for the O2, this is the end of the season and will set the tone for how this season will be seen (a struggle to progress throughout or a season in which Andy Murray was showing his form of old by the end?) and influence the off season and start to the next. So lots to ponder.

Whilst the last few weeks have not been flawless, I’ve been encouraged by what has indeed felt like progress. Shenzhen was not beautiful tennis but it was an incredibly important win, Beijing showed better tennis if not of the level to challenge Djokovic, Shanghai had higher highs but consistency was the downfall and Vienna showed that consistency and belief are enough for Andy to win a tournament of that level with what was ultimately little fuss. Would Valencia show the same continuing development?

I’d say that it looks like Andy is building. Melzer is ranked 121 at the moment but is former top 10, was top 30 this time last year and winner of 5 career titles, so don’t let that fool you. I think you can see that from this match, there were some sweet shots from the Austrian that you wouldn’t expect someone outside the top 100 to be hitting so often. Andy seemed cognisant of that from the start, no evidence of complacency. I’d compare the Andy of set 1 to the Andy who played Ferrer on Sunday; good movement and variety, no fear of playing the riskier shots. Not being a complete brick wall for Melzer but playing the big points well when he needed to. As with Ferrer, Andy got broken but didn’t allow the Austrian to consolidate the break, and that wasn’t just luck. He could will the break back, will a win. It could have been a triple break in the first set, Andy settled for just the double.

The second set rather followed suit. Melzer had obviously had a think at the changeover, decided to come back and just go for it, a pretty good choice to be honest. Andy, either relaxing a touch too much or taken by surprise a bit with a change up from his opponent, dropped the first game. I was a little worried we were in for a more significant dip yet, lo, Andy broke back immediately again, to 15. And he was playing his brand of tennis throughout; returning well, defending like a dream, hitting some crazy angles and popping to the net with success just frequently enough to take advantage of his volleying skills but not too frequently too lose the element of surprise. It was also cleaner than we’ve often seen even when he’s been playing better, minimal unforced errors. However, Melzer wasn’t too put off (although his racquet did take a beating on the break back) and did continue to try his best to pressurise Andy, who wasn’t getting too much traction on the Austrian’s serve for the next few games. But patience is a virtue and, from 40-0 down in the 6th game, Andy grabbed the little opportunities that presented themselves to crack his opponent’s serve. And his opponent proceeded to crack his racquet. Hard. Unfortunately, he didn’t just take it out on his racquet, he took it out on Andy’s next service game, and somehow we were back on serve. The serve revolving door of that exchange of breaks in the 6th and 7th games, luckily for Murray, continued to turn into the 8th. And serve out the match our man did.

Another straight sets win and, overall, strong tennis and a strong start.

A brief side point: It’s a little frustrating, this tit-for-tat break-and-break-back situation we saw against Ferrer in the third and a little with Melzer here. The fact that Andy is finding ways to hold his nerve and knock his opponent back into shape when he needs to, even against someone like Ferrer, is massive and what he often failed to do of late. And with the standard of tennis he’s played the last few weeks, he can manage that. But if he was playing a Djokovic, a Federer, giving that inch would likely lead to losing the mile. I think it’s stronger serving that makes the difference, and I think that’s what the off season should ideally gear towards because it is somewhat picking hairs for me to be suggesting it as a criticism rather than a comment here.

As for a quick round up of the other rockers and rollers for London, today’s positive news came in the form of a first round loss in Basel for a certain Tomas Berdych. That means that a strong run in Valencia could put Andy in 7th spot, with a little cushion going into Paris. Fingers crossed. Raonic and Ferrer are through, keeping up the pressure, and Dimitrov has just taken to the court for his first round match so no report there quite yet.

A great start, bring on tomorrow against the bad boy of tennis (or so he would have us believe), Fabio Fognini. I think Andy’s in this one to win, so let’s hope he proves me right.